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An integrated economy-demography model reframed in a system dynamics setting

Authors: 

Gozdem Dural-Selcuk, Huseyin Tunc, Armagan Tarim

Publication Type: 
Refereed Original Article
Abstract: 
In recent history, there has been an increasing concern about population aging and the associated increased economic burden in terms of high health-care expenses and pension payments. The need for decision support tools that can explore population dynamics has become a prominent issue. This study presents a comprehensive framework where one can scrutinize the key demographic drives of fertility (Total Fertility Rate/Age-Specific Fertility Rate) over macroeconomic indicators (technology, education, human capital) under exogenous mortality. The integrated model in this article is developed based on a reformulation of the unified growth theory. In the reformulated model, namely the “economy-demography model,” the population age/sex structure is preserved, age-specific mortality is included, and fertility is measured in conventional demographic terms. The model is then presented in system dynamics framework, and its practical use is showcased with data obtained from the Turkish Statistical Institute. Copyright © 2020 System Dynamics Society
Digital Object Identifer (DOI): 
10.1002/sdr.1645
Publication Status: 
Published
Date Accepted for Publication: 
Wednesday, 29 January, 2020
Publication Date: 
27/02/2020
Journal: 
System Dynamics Review
Volume: 
35
Issue: 
4
Pages: 
337–368
Institution: 
National University of Ireland, Cork (UCC)
Open access repository: 
No